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This document was generated by the close itself and is shown exactly as produced (draft status and all). How it fits in the workflow is explained on the main page. Download forecast.csv → the full 84-row forecast grain, open in Excel or Sheets

Rolling Forecast: EventCo Jul 2026 / Aug 2026 / Sep 2026

Generated by agents/forecast_agent.py from output/variance_table.csv (the Variance & Root-Cause Agent's output: cleaned actuals/budgets plus materiality flags and evidence). This agent never reads data/ground_truth.md. Last closed month: June 2026.

Method

Forecast = seasonal base × median year-over-year growth, per BU and line item:

Base: the same month one year earlier, taken from a normalized history (see adjustments below). The events business is strongly seasonal, so same-month-last-year carries the right shape.
Growth: the median year-over-year ratio across the last 12 closed months, on the normalized history. The median keeps any single distorted pair from steering the factor.

Normalization rules. A forecast is only as good as the history it extrapolates:

Suspected data entry errors (still uncorrected in the cleaned file) are replaced with budget × the line's typical achievement ratio. A fat-finger digit must never touch a trend.
One-off material months (single-month variances, explained or not) are replaced the same way. One-offs don't recur, and carrying them into a seasonal base would re-forecast last year's accident.
Sustained episodes are kept only if still running at the cutoff (within 2 months of 2026-06); an episode that ended earlier is normalized out, because its effect is already over or absorbed into the current baseline.

History adjustments (full audit trail)

34 month-values normalized, 0 episode month-values deliberately kept.

Brand Events · COGS · 2024-11 · EUR2,476,055 · EUR2,811,839

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Brand Events · COGS · 2025-04 · EUR3,201,900 · EUR2,528,379

part of episode 2025-04..2025-06, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N11, N13

Brand Events · COGS · 2025-05 · EUR3,352,549 · EUR2,757,235

part of episode 2025-04..2025-06, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N11, N13

Brand Events · COGS · 2025-06 · EUR3,347,006 · EUR2,655,611

part of episode 2025-04..2025-06, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N11, N13

Brand Events · COGS · 2026-04 · EUR2,997,915 · EUR2,629,514

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Brand Events · Revenue · 2025-07 · EUR3,627,996 · EUR3,356,852

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Brand Events · Revenue · 2025-11 · EUR52,243,584 · EUR5,201,569

suspected data entry error (>4x/<0.25x budget), still uncorrected in the cleaned file

Brand Events · Revenue · 2026-04 · EUR5,099,183 · EUR4,677,202

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Corporate Events · COGS · 2024-06 · EUR636,525 · EUR707,793

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Corporate Events · COGS · 2024-10 · EUR846,462 · EUR717,108

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Corporate Events · COGS · 2025-03 · EUR604,783 · EUR546,692

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Corporate Events · COGS · 2025-12 · EUR763,011 · EUR688,126

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-04 · EUR41,484 · EUR43,949

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-05 · EUR40,770 · EUR45,211

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-06 · EUR42,865 · EUR44,580

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-07 · EUR25,840 · EUR40,164

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-08 · EUR32,713 · EUR37,010

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-09 · EUR38,268 · EUR41,425

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-10 · EUR38,632 · EUR44,580

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-11 · EUR39,033 · EUR45,841

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2025-12 · EUR44,568 · EUR43,318

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2026-01 · EUR34,389 · EUR38,271

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Opex - Marketing · 2026-02 · EUR36,324 · EUR39,533

part of episode 2025-04..2026-02, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N12, N16

Corporate Events · Revenue · 2024-10 · EUR2,275,270 · EUR2,065,108

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Digital/Influence · COGS · 2024-07 · EUR457,359 · EUR547,075

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Digital/Influence · COGS · 2024-12 · EUR644,909 · EUR719,644

part of episode 2024-12..2025-01, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Digital/Influence · COGS · 2025-01 · EUR379,132 · EUR459,455

part of episode 2024-12..2025-01, concluded before the forecast cutoff. Its effect is over and must not be extrapolated

Digital/Influence · COGS · 2025-03 · EUR655,359 · EUR594,602

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Digital/Influence · COGS · 2025-06 · EUR710,289 · EUR800,614

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Digital/Influence · Revenue · 2025-01 · EUR1,291,857 · EUR1,531,063

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Digital/Influence · Revenue · 2025-08 · EUR1,465,426 · EUR1,342,711

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Digital/Influence · Revenue · 2025-09 · EUR1,915,910 · EUR2,132,918

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N08

Government & Institutions · Opex - IT · 2024-11 · EUR39,366 · EUR15,462

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Evidence: N06

Government & Institutions · Revenue · 2024-10 · EUR913,903 · EUR1,030,442

one-off material variance, non-recurring by nature, must not be extrapolated

Q3 2026 forecast: revenue and total costs by month, with prior-year reference

Forecast by BU and line item

Prior year (PY) is the normalized actual of the same month last year (the forecast base). Growth is the median YoY factor applied.

Business Unit	Line item	Growth	Jul-26	Aug-26	Sep-26	3-mo total	PY 3-mo	vs PY
Brand Events	COGS	1.05x	EUR1,989,496	EUR1,282,924	EUR2,146,572	EUR5,418,993	EUR5,176,626	+4.7%
Brand Events	Opex - Facilities	1.00x	EUR8,333	EUR8,903	EUR8,047	EUR25,283	EUR25,291	-0.0%
Brand Events	Opex - IT	0.89x	EUR2,460	EUR3,212	EUR2,682	EUR8,354	EUR9,336	-10.5%
Brand Events	Opex - Marketing	0.99x	EUR1,821	EUR1,893	EUR1,796	EUR5,510	EUR5,553	-0.8%
Brand Events	Opex - Travel	1.02x	EUR8,841	EUR9,260	EUR10,319	EUR28,421	EUR27,855	+2.0%
Brand Events	Payroll	1.03x	EUR281,389	EUR279,935	EUR274,229	EUR835,553	EUR814,591	+2.6%
Brand Events	Revenue	1.06x	EUR3,562,275	EUR2,512,434	EUR4,119,513	EUR10,194,222	EUR9,606,360	+6.1%
Corporate Events	COGS	1.04x	EUR536,089	EUR421,627	EUR648,944	EUR1,606,659	EUR1,542,181	+4.2%
Corporate Events	Opex - Facilities	1.02x	EUR4,168	EUR4,348	EUR4,198	EUR12,714	EUR12,504	+1.7%
Corporate Events	Opex - IT	1.00x	EUR2,641	EUR2,256	EUR2,635	EUR7,531	EUR7,522	+0.1%
Corporate Events	Opex - Marketing	1.02x	EUR40,869	EUR37,660	EUR42,153	EUR120,682	EUR118,599	+1.8%
Corporate Events	Opex - Travel	1.01x	EUR6,135	EUR5,014	EUR6,450	EUR17,600	EUR17,438	+0.9%
Corporate Events	Payroll	1.02x	EUR112,806	EUR105,970	EUR109,538	EUR328,314	EUR321,642	+2.1%
Corporate Events	Revenue	1.05x	EUR1,526,356	EUR1,141,635	EUR1,809,461	EUR4,477,452	EUR4,259,601	+5.1%
Digital/Influence	COGS	1.01x	EUR552,934	EUR443,489	EUR647,944	EUR1,644,368	EUR1,624,371	+1.2%
Digital/Influence	Opex - Facilities	1.00x	EUR6,196	EUR5,985	EUR6,127	EUR18,307	EUR18,289	+0.1%
Digital/Influence	Opex - IT	0.97x	EUR12,557	EUR10,842	EUR12,774	EUR36,172	EUR37,191	-2.7%
Digital/Influence	Opex - Marketing	1.01x	EUR4,999	EUR3,978	EUR5,412	EUR14,388	EUR14,273	+0.8%
Digital/Influence	Opex - Travel	0.95x	EUR3,871	EUR3,093	EUR3,458	EUR10,422	EUR10,966	-5.0%
Digital/Influence	Payroll	1.04x	EUR263,894	EUR259,255	EUR261,768	EUR784,916	EUR756,759	+3.7%
Digital/Influence	Revenue	1.05x	EUR1,983,926	EUR1,404,061	EUR2,230,375	EUR5,618,362	EUR5,372,867	+4.6%
Government & Institutions	COGS	1.10x	EUR81,693	EUR61,333	EUR106,708	EUR249,734	EUR226,577	+10.2%
Government & Institutions	Opex - Facilities	1.02x	EUR9,569	EUR9,846	EUR9,077	EUR28,492	EUR28,008	+1.7%
Government & Institutions	Opex - IT	1.06x	EUR17,147	EUR14,670	EUR16,636	EUR48,452	EUR45,877	+5.6%
Government & Institutions	Opex - Marketing	0.94x	EUR503	EUR389	EUR461	EUR1,353	EUR1,446	-6.4%
Government & Institutions	Opex - Travel	1.02x	EUR1,521	EUR1,354	EUR1,706	EUR4,581	EUR4,504	+1.7%
Government & Institutions	Payroll	1.03x	EUR178,230	EUR170,120	EUR177,750	EUR526,100	EUR510,433	+3.1%
Government & Institutions	Revenue	1.06x	EUR762,524	EUR584,105	EUR976,963	EUR2,323,592	EUR2,183,850	+6.4%

Group P&L summary (forecast)

	Jul-26	Aug-26	Sep-26	3-mo total
Revenue	EUR7,835,082	EUR5,642,235	EUR9,136,311	EUR22,613,628
Total costs	EUR4,128,163	EUR3,147,354	EUR4,507,382	EUR11,782,899
Net result	EUR3,706,919	EUR2,494,882	EUR4,628,929	EUR10,830,729

Margin: 47.9% of revenue over the horizon.

No sustained programme was still active at the cutoff, so no episode effect is carried forward in this run. Had one been active (see the adjustment rules above), its months would appear as KEPT in the audit trail and flow into the base.